Experts say Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have a huge negative impact on climate change action in the short term, but the long-term effects are uncertain.
As world leaders convene for the latest UN climate talks next week, COP 29A Trump victory would be seen as a huge obstacle to progress in reducing emissions and raising finance in developing countries.
The US president-elect is a prominent climate skeptic who has called efforts to promote green energy a “hoax”.
But with renewable energy taking hold in the U.S. and wind and solar gaining broad support, Trump’s efforts to increase oil and gas may not be as effective.
While climate change didn’t play a big role in this year’s campaign, the actions Trump could take this time in office could be far more important than in 2017.
At that time, he announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the most important process of the United Nations to combat climate change. The agreement saw almost every country in the world agree for the first time to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.
But the shock of Trump’s decision was limited. The treaty’s rules mean the United States cannot withdraw until November 2020, just months before he leaves office.
If Trump withdraws again, he only needs to wait a year and the United States will be completely out of the game. That would give him three years to chart his own course without having to report to the United Nations or be bound by its rules.
While President Joe Biden’s negotiators will attend next week’s Conference of the Parties talks in Azerbaijan, nothing they agree on will be binding on the Trump administration.
Professor Richard Klein, a climate change policy expert at the Stockholm Environment Institute, said: “The United States is not only a lame duck at this COP, it is a dead duck.”
“They can’t promise anything, which means countries like China don’t want to promise anything either.”
In recent years, richer countries such as the United States, Britain and the European Union have tried to increase funding for developing countries to combat climate change. But they also insist that large developing economies should also contribute.
“The United States basically wants China to chip in with some money for the fund as well. Now they can’t do that. That lets China off the hook,” Professor Klein said.
Climate scientists say developing countries will need billions of dollars in additional investment to achieve net-zero emissions, which do not contribute to climate change and avoid the effects of rising temperatures.
Although the United States may soon withdraw from the Paris Agreement, Trump will still be bound by other global efforts to combat climate change.
There are reports that some of his supporters want to reject these as well. Some advocate abandoning the United Nations’ efforts on climate change altogether, urging the president-elect to abandon the so-called “climate change framework.” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changea treaty that supports collective global action to combat climate change.
The bill was approved nearly unanimously by the U.S. Senate in 1992.
In addition to these high-profile international actions, the new Trump administration is also likely to promote a significant increase in oil and gas exploration in the United States, roll back environmental protection measures, and impose high tariffs on electric vehicles and solar panels from the United States. .
“Generally, you’re looking at a ‘drill a baby drill’ concept,” Dan Eberhart, chief executive of oilfield services company Canary LLC, told Bloomberg News.
“You’re going to see offshore lease sales, you’re going to see pipelines moving faster, you’re going to see fracking on federal lands and a mentality focused on lowering energy costs for consumers.”
There was once a big stock price falls turbine manufacturer Concerns grew on Wednesday that Trump would cancel U.S. offshore wind farms as president.
But in the long term, it’s unclear whether the new president will roll back the development of coal, oil and natural gas, or limit the growth of sustainable energy.
First, he faces opposition — especially from within his own party.
Biden’s Inflation reduction methodThere could end up being $1 trillion in spending on green energy, which would be very beneficial to Republican districts.
According to one analysis, About 85% of funds are invested in elections republican party.
Energy regulator the International Energy Agency reports that by 2024, global investment in clean technology will be twice as large as coal, oil and gas, and the new US administration may not want to push such green investment to other more enthusiastic countries .
Climate leaders are very confident that the new Trump administration will not derail the transition to green energy.
“The outcome of this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action,” said former UN climate chief Cristina Figueres.
“But it cannot and will not stop the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.”
