ReutersDonald Trump’s return to the White House will reshape U.S. foreign policy, promising fundamental shifts on multiple fronts as war and uncertainty grip parts of the world.
During the campaign, Trump made broad policy commitments based on the principles of non-interventionism and protectionism (or “America First,” as he put it), but often lacked specific details.
His victory marks one of the most significant potential disruptions to the way Washington has conducted foreign affairs in years amid parallel crises.
We can piece together from his comments on the campaign trail and his record in office from 2017 to 2021 some of the approaches he might take in different areas.
Russia, Ukraine and NATO
During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in one day.” Asked how to proceed, he suggested overseeing a deal but declined to elaborate.
A research paper written in May by two of Trump’s former national security chiefs said the United States should continue to provide arms to Ukraine but conditional on Kyiv engaging in peace talks with Russia.
To attract Russia, the West will promise to delay Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. Former advisers say Ukraine should not give up hope of regaining all of its territory from Russian occupation but should negotiate based on current front lines.
Trump’s Democratic opponents accuse him of cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying his actions amount to a capitulation to Ukraine and would endanger all of Europe.
He has always said his top priority is to end the war and stem the drain on U.S. resources.
It’s unclear to what extent the former adviser’s paper represents Trump’s own thinking, but it likely provides a guide to what kind of advice he would receive.
His “America First” approach to ending the war also extends to NATO’s future strategic issues.
ReutersNATO currently has 32 countries, and Trump has long been skeptical of the alliance and accused Europe of free riding on U.S. pledges of protection.
Whether he actually pulls the United States out of Nato, which would mark the most significant shift in transatlantic defense ties in nearly a century, remains a matter of debate.
Some of his allies say his hard line is just a negotiating tactic to get members to comply with the alliance’s defense spending guidelines.
But the reality is that NATO leaders will have serious concerns about what his victory means for the future of the alliance and how its deterrent effect will be viewed by rival leaders.
middle East
As with Ukraine, Trump promised to bring “peace” to the Middle East, meaning he would end Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza and Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but did not say how.
He has repeatedly said that Hamas would not attack Israel if he, rather than Joe Biden, were in power because of his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, which funds the group.
Overall, Trump is likely to try to return to the policy of his administration withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, imposing tougher sanctions on Iran, and killing Iran’s most powerful military commander, Qasi. General M Soleimani.
In the White House, Trump has instituted strong pro-Israel policies, naming Jerusalem the capital of Israel and moving the U.S. embassy there from Tel Aviv, a move that has infused Trump’s Christian evangelical base, a core group of Republican voters. vitality.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.”
But critics say his policies have had a destabilizing effect on the region.
Palestinians are boycotting the Trump administration as Washington abandons their claim to Jerusalem, the historic center of Palestinian national and religious life.
They were further isolated when Trump brokered the so-called “Abraham Accords,” a historic agreement to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim countries. They do so without Israel having to accept a future independent Palestinian state – the so-called two-state solution – which had previously been a condition for such regional agreements among Arab states.
Instead, the countries involved gained access to advanced U.S. weapons in exchange for recognizing Israel.
Palestinians are left in one of the most isolated situations in their history by the only state with real leverage over both sides of the conflict, further reducing their ability to protect themselves on the ground.
Trump made multiple statements during the campaign saying he wanted the Gaza war to end.
His relationship with Netanyahu is complicated and sometimes dysfunctional, but he certainly has the ability to put pressure on Netanyahu.
He also has close ties with leaders of major Arab countries linked to Hamas.
It’s unclear how he will balance his desire to express strong support for Israel’s leadership with efforts to end the war.
Trump’s allies often describe his unpredictability as a diplomatic asset, but it’s unclear how that will play out in a crisis that has reached historic proportions in a hotly contested and volatile Middle East.
Trump will have to decide how — or whether — to advance the stalled diplomatic process launched by the Biden administration to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages by Hamas.
China and trade
The United States’ China policy is the most strategic area of its foreign policy and the area that has the greatest impact on global security and trade.
When Trump was in office, he called China a “strategic competitor” and imposed tariffs on some Chinese goods exported to the United States. That triggered tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. imports from Beijing.
There were efforts to de-escalate the trade dispute, but the coronavirus pandemic eliminated that possibility, and relations took a turn for the worse with the former president referring to the virus as the “Chinese virus.”
While the Biden administration claims to be taking a more responsible approach to China policy, it does in fact retain many of the Trump-era import tariffs.
Trade policy has become closely tied to domestic voters’ views on protecting U.S. manufacturing jobs—even though long-term employment declines in traditional U.S. industries like steel have as much to do with factory automation and changes in production as with global competition and changes in production. Offshoring.
Trump praised Chinese President Xi Jinping as both “brilliant” and “dangerous” and an effective leader who controls 1.4 billion people with an “iron fist” – what his opponents call a “dictator.” part of the admiration.
The former president appears likely to reverse the Biden administration’s approach to forging stronger U.S. security partnerships with other regional countries to contain China.
The United States has been providing military aid to self-ruled Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province that will eventually come under Beijing’s control.
Trump said in October that if he returned to the White House, he would not have to use force to stop China from blocking Taiwan because President Xi knew he “[expletive] Crazy” and if that happens, he will impose paralyzing tariffs on Chinese imports.
