Kemi Badenoch is the favorite, but can she take the Conservative leadership crown?

We all know this is the toughest job in politics: leader of the opposition.

It’s especially difficult if your party has just suffered a historic blow from the electorate.

A flip through the history books may not inspire the victors either.

The last time the Conservatives won a landslide election victory in 1997, it took them 13 years and four leaders to return to power.

When Labor was ousted in 2010, it took them 14 years and three leaders to win again in July.

Still, the race to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative leader has been a tight one.

As recent British political history demonstrates, precedents need to be broken.

Just after 11:00 GMT on Saturday, in a perfect location along the way to Westminster, we will reveal whether Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick Will replace Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party.

Ask most people in and around politics who is most likely to win, and most will say Badenock.

But polling members of the Conservative Party is not simple, and the party’s internal campaigns often bring surprises.

Both camps admit turnout will be down from the last time two years ago, when Liz Truss defeated Sunak, with 82.5% of party members deciding to speak out.

“I doubt that number will hit 70 percent,” one campaign source said.

When you no longer pick the prime minister, the stakes are not so high.

This is what it looks like in the morning.

Both candidates will arrive in their own right.

Everyone had their own green room backstage, and there was a third room where they would all be summoned together by 11:00 to be told privately what the outcome was.

They will then try to put on a poker face, walk into the results room and sit in the front row while the rest of us remain in the dark about the results.

Party Chairman Richard Fuller will deliver a few words before the results are read out by 1922 Committee Chairman Bob Blackman.

Next it’s time for the winner’s speech.

Losers will stay in their seats.

Don’t talk too long and speak to the country, not just the party, was the honoree’s mission statement at the podium.

They both put their Friday aside, trying to find the words that would do the job.

After the speech, I would plunge into the melee of senior party figures trying to get as many interviews as possible.

An official car will then pick up the winners and drive them to the Conservative campaign headquarters in Westminster.

There are papers to be signed, security briefings to be obtained, a shadow cabinet to be assembled.

What about the losers? Find a taxi to take you home.

Politics is a cruel old game.

I understand that existing frontbenchers who served under Sunak have been asked to continue in their current roles until Wednesday.

While the winners are likely to appoint their most senior team members over the weekend and early next week, filling all junior positions will take some time, with parliamentary appointments starting on Monday morning.

So who will win?

Since Badenock and Jenrick made it to the final two, the long-standing expectation of most people was that Badenock was the favourite.

That view remains with most, but not all, people since voting closed on Thursday.

“I still don’t expect to sleep well,” one Badenoch supporter told me last night, adding tartly: “He’s a year ahead” – Referring to Jenrick’s resignation from the government in Decemberwidely viewed by his colleagues as his first step in leadership advocacy.

Badenock remained a cabinet minister until the Conservative defeat in July.

Jenrick entered the race as the underdog and also ran it with great energy, attending 250 events and meeting some 20,000 party members.

He also seems to agree to almost any media invitation, appearing on TV, radio, newspapers, podcasts or online any day of the week.

Badenock waited until the final days to embark on a media blitz, while also traveling around the country to meet as many party members as possible.

One of her supporters told me: “She has that light and we will have a huge battle with Starmer with her.”

But both Badenock and Jenrick know it will be a tough job for them.

Now you don’t have to wait too long to find out whose job it is.