Getty ImagesNew analysis shows that human-caused climate change has made the ten deadliest extreme weather events of the past 20 years more severe and more likely to occur.
Deadly storms, heat waves and floods have affected Europe, Africa and Asia, killing more than 570,000 people.
New analysis highlights how scientists are now discerning the fingerprints of climate change in complex weather events.
The study involved reanalyzing data from some extreme weather events and was carried out by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at Imperial College London.
“This research should be an eye-opener for political leaders who insist on using fossil fuels that heat the planet and destroy life,” said Dr. Friederike Otto, co-founder and director of WWA.
“If we continue to burn oil, gas and coal, the suffering will continue,” she said.
Getty ImagesThe researchers focused on the 10 deadliest weather events recorded in the International Disaster Database since 2004.
The most severe event of the past two decades was the 2011 drought in Somalia, which was estimated to have killed more than 250,000 people. Researchers found that climate change is making low rainfall levels that lead to droughts more likely and more extreme.
The list includes the 2015 heat wave that hit France, killing more than 3,000 people, and researchers say the country is twice as likely to experience high temperatures due to climate change.
It also covers the 2022 European heat wave, when 53,000 people died, and the 2023 European heat wave, which killed 37,000 people. The latter would not be possible without climate change, the study found.
The report said that deadly tropical cyclones that hit Bangladesh in 2007, Myanmar in 2008 and the Philippines in 2013 have all become more likely and intense due to climate change. The same was true for the floods that hit India in 2013.
Researchers say the actual death toll from these events is likely much higher than the figures they cite.
That’s because in much of the world, heatwave-related deaths tend not to be recorded, especially in poorer countries that are the most vulnerable.
The study was conducted before storms killed dozens of people in Spain this week.
Getty ImagesThe connection between climate change and weather events is possible because the two scientists who founded WWA – Dr. Otto and Dutch climatologist Geert Jan van Oldenburg – pioneered a Methods for tracking global warming during catastrophic weather events.
They know weather records show extreme weather events are getting more severe. What’s more, there’s a wealth of peer-reviewed science explaining how atmospheric warming can exacerbate extreme weather. What’s missing is the connection between a single event and rising global temperatures.
For years, forecasters have used atmospheric models to predict future weather patterns. Otto and Oldenburg repurposed the model, running repeated simulations to calculate how likely the weather event was to occur in the current climate.
They also created parallel simulations to explore how likely the same event would be in a world where the Industrial Revolution never happened. These computer models eliminate the impact of the billions of tons of carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere.
These calculations mean they can compare the likelihood of the same event occurring with and without the 1.2 degrees of global warming the world has experienced since the Industrial Revolution.
“The high death tolls we continue to see in extreme weather show that we are not adequately prepared for 1.3°C of warming, let alone 1.5°C or 2°C,” said the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Roop Singh said.
She said today’s research shows that all countries need to build resilience to climate change, warning: “With every degree of warming, we will see more record-breaking events that push countries to the brink of collapse, regardless of whether How prepared they are.
