How this US election will change the state of the world

As US President Joe Biden walks through Kyiv February 2023 Air sirens sounded as he made a surprise trip to express solidarity with Ukrainian President Zelensky. “My feelings…were stronger than ever,” he later recalled. “America is a beacon to the world.”

The world is waiting to see who will helm the self-proclaimed beacon as Americans make their choice in next week’s presidential election. Will Kamala Harris continue to follow in Biden’s footsteps, convinced that “in these turbulent times, it is clear that America cannot retreat”? Or does Donald Trump want “Americanism, not globalism” to lead the way?

We live in a world where the value of America’s global influence is called into question. Regional powers are going their own ways, authoritarian regimes are forging their own alliances, and devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere are raising troubling questions about the value of Washington’s role. But the United States plays an important role because of its economic and military strength and its important role in many alliances. I asked some well-informed observers for their reflections on the global consequences of this consequential election.

“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” said Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary-general of NATO. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, and his actions echo The threat of withdrawing from NATO is ringing in everyone’s ears”.

Washington’s defense spending is equivalent to two-thirds of the military budgets of the other 31 NATO members. Outside of NATO, the United States spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.

Trump has boasted that he is taking tough measures to force other NATO countries to meet their spending target of 2% of GDP, which only 23 members have achieved by 2024. shock.

Ms. Gottmoeller believes that if Ms. Harris wins, “NATO will undoubtedly be in Washington’s hands.” But she also has a caveat. “She will be prepared to continue working with NATO and the EU to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not back down [spending] Put pressure on Europe.

But Harris’ team in the White House will have to govern with a Senate or House of Representatives that could soon fall into the hands of Republicans less willing to support foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts. There is a growing awareness that no matter who becomes president, pressure will mount on Kyiv to find a way out of the war as U.S. lawmakers become increasingly reluctant to pass a huge aid package.

Ms. Gottmoller said that no matter what happens, “I don’t think NATO will definitely collapse.” Europe needs to “step up and take a leadership role.”

The next U.S. president will have to work in a world that risks the greatest great power confrontation since the Cold War.

Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, told me: “The United States remains the most important international actor on peace and security issues.” “But its power to help resolve conflicts is diminishing,” she added.

The war became increasingly difficult to end. “As great power competition intensifies and middle powers rise, deadly conflicts become more difficult,” Ms. Ayrault said of the situation. Wars like Ukraine involve multiple states, while conflicts like Sudan pit regional actors with competing interests against each other, some more invested in war than in peace.

Ms. Ayrault said the United States was losing its moral high ground. “Global actors note that it applies one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and another to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Horrible atrocities occurred in the war in Sudan, but were treated as minor issues.

Ms Harris’ victory “represents continuity with the current administration”, she said. If it were Trump, he “might give Israel more freedom in Gaza and elsewhere and suggest he could try to negotiate a Ukraine deal with Moscow over Kyiv’s head.”

On the Middle East issue, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly echoed Biden’s firm support for Israel’s “right to self-defense.” But she also stressed that “the killing of innocent Palestinians must stop.”

Trump also declared it was time to “restore peace and stop killing people.” But he reportedly told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”

The Republican contender prides himself on being a peacemaker. “I will soon bring peace in the Middle East,” he vowed in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya television on Sunday night.

He promised to expand 2020 Abraham Accords. These bilateral deals normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, but are widely seen as excluding Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.

On the Ukraine issue, Trump has never hidden his admiration for Russian strongmen such as Vladimir Putin. He has made clear his desire to end the war in Ukraine and, in doing so, end massive U.S. military and financial support. “I will get out. We have to leave,” he insisted at a recent rally.

In contrast, Ms. Harris said: “I am proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine. I will work to ensure that Ukraine wins this war.

But Ms. Ayrault worries that the world could get worse no matter who is elected.

“The biggest impact on the global economy in decades.” This is the view of the famous China scholar Rana Mitter on Trump’s proposal to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.

Imposing high costs on China and many other trading partners has been one of the most persistent threats to Trump’s “America First” approach. But Trump also praised what he believed to be a close personal connection with President Xi Jinping. He told the Wall Street Journal editorial board that if Beijing moved to blockade Taiwan, he would not have to use force because Chinese leaders “Respect me, he knows me [expletive] Crazy.

But leading figures in both the Republican and Democratic parties are hawks. Both believe Beijing is bent on overtaking the United States as the most influential power.

But Mr. Mitt, a British historian who holds the ST Lee Chair in American-Asian Relations at the Kennedy School of Harvard University, sees some differences. He told Ms Harris that “the relationship will probably develop in a linear fashion from where it is now.” If Mr Trump wins, it will be a more “volatile situation”. On Taiwan, for example, Mitte noted that Trump was conflicted about whether he would defend the island, which is far from the United States.

Chinese leaders believe both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump will be tough. Mr. Mitt believes that “a small part of the establishment favors Harris and thinks that he is ‘better than the opponent you know’.” A considerable number of people believe that Trump is a businessman and his unpredictability may just mean that he will be in trouble with China. Make a big bargain, even though it seems unlikely.

Mary Robinson, president of the Elders, founded by Nelson Mandela, said: “With the urgency of the climate and nature crisis, the U.S. election has significant consequences not just for its citizens but for the world as a whole. Influence.

She added: “Every zero degree is important to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and prevent devastating hurricanes like Milton from becoming the norm in the future.”

But as Hurricanes Milton and Helen raged, Trump derided environmental plans and policies to address the climate emergency as “one of the biggest hoaxes ever.” Many expect him to withdraw from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, as he did during his first term.

However, Ms Robinson does not think Mr Trump can stop the momentum that is building. “He can’t stop America’s energy transition and cut billions of dollars in green subsidies… Nor can he stop the tireless non-federal climate movement.”

She also urged Ms Harris, who has yet to make her position clear, to step up and “show leadership, build on the momentum of recent years and spur other major emitters to step up.”

Veteran Martin Griffiths said: “Given the unparalleled influence of the United States, not only through its military and economic might, but also through its potential to lead with moral authority on the global stage, the U.S. election The results are of great significance.

If Ms Harris wins, he sees a brighter future, saying “a return to the isolationism and unilateralism that marked the Trump presidency will only exacerbate global instability.”

But he also criticized the Biden-Harris administration for its “hesitancy” over worsening tensions in the Middle East.

Aid agency chiefs have repeatedly condemned Hamas’s brutal attack on Israeli civilians on October 7. But they have also repeatedly called on the United States to do more to end the profound suffering of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon.

Biden and his top officials have repeatedly called for more aid to Gaza, and at times it has worked. But critics say the aid and pressure don’t go far enough. Recent warnings say some vital military aid could be cut, a decision delayed until after the U.S. election.

As far as the United Nations system is concerned, the United States is the largest donor. In 2022, it provided a record $18.1bn (£13.9bn).

But during Trump’s first term, he cut funding to multiple U.N. agencies and withdrew from the World Health Organization. Other donors scrambled to fill the gap — which is exactly what Trump wants to happen.

But Greaves still believes the United States is an indispensable force.

“In a time of global conflict and uncertainty, the world looks to the United States for responsible, principled leadership to meet challenges… We demand more. We deserve more. We dare to hope for more.

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