AFPLosing a deputy just two years after being jointly elected might be seen as a major blow to the president, but that is not the case this time in Kenya.
When it was discovered that Rigati Gachagua was undermining William Ruto, he moved quickly to remove his deputy.
He saw first-hand how disagreements between Kenya’s top two leaders led to a dysfunctional government after he fell out with his former boss Uhuru Kenyatta.
On live television, Kenya’s unprecedented political transformation may appear orderly and seamless to outside observers.
The impeachment process intrigues many because both houses of Congress, the courts, and finally the executive branch appear to have carried out their duties according to carefully laid down legal procedures.
But it has been a roller coaster ride for many Kenyans, prompting a backlash across the country.
There was initially a sense of betrayal and disappointment, especially from Gachagua’s home region of Mount Kenya, but by Friday morning that was replaced by a sense of acceptance that the man chosen to succeed him would Kithure Kindiki is from the same area.
Mount Kenya played a major role in Ruto’s victory over former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the hotly contested 2022 presidential election.
Odinga ran against a powerful former justice minister, Martha Kaluuya, who was from the region, and was supported by then-outgoing President Kenyatta, who was also from the region.
But in the end, Ruto took Gachagua to a landslide victory in that part of the country.
For context, Kenyan politics is largely driven by regional (some would say ethnic) blocs, and Mount Kenya holds about a quarter of the country’s votes.
Not surprisingly, three of the five presidents since independence – Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta – have come from the region. That is why the two front-runners in the last presidential election – Ruto and Odinga – chose running mates there because they were both from other parts of the country.
So for a president in his first term, disrupting the region might be tantamount to political suicide.
But Gachagua’s attempts to consolidate his control over the EU proved to be his undoing.
Parliament accused him of fomenting racially divisive politics, among other things, at a time when he was expected to be a unifier of the country.
He coined the term “usiguze mlima”, meaning “don’t touch the mountain”, casting himself as a staunch defender of the Mount Kenya region and a gateway to the region.
Clips played during the impeachment proceedings showed him suggesting the government would prioritize those regions that voted for the winning ticket, although Ruto made similar statements.
Lawmakers elsewhere strongly condemned the sentiment.
Ruto remained silent as his deputy went through impeachment proceedings, even as he begged the president to intervene and even asked for clemency “if he [Gachagua] He was wronged.
There is recent precedent for a president falling out with his deputy and causing chaos.
During Kenyatta’s second term, Ruto, then deputy president, complained of being marginalized and persecuted.
The victim card endeared him to many, including the then-president’s own political backyard.
But to win the 2022 presidential election, he will need more than sympathy — he will also have to choose a running mate from Mount Kenya.
While many expected the president to choose his long-time ally, law professor Kithure Kindiki, Ruto surprisingly chose Rigathi Gachagua, then a one-term member of parliament. .
Kindiki was already a household name in Kenya, having served as deputy speaker before being fired amid a purge of Ruto allies instigated by Kenyatta.
Lawmakers from Ruto’s party, who voted overwhelmingly for Kindiki, said they had voted three times when Kindiki sought their involvement in picking a running mate. Gachagua came second, but ultimately it was Ruto’s choice.
So the replacement isn’t a surprise.
He was from “the mountains,” albeit one of the smaller tribes, which helped calm feelings of anger and betrayal.
Many locals speaking on television have been calling for the president’s choice to be accepted to avoid dividing the region.
That’s what it all comes down to: pushing hard until the next election is three years away.
But there is no doubt that it will still weaken the president’s support in Mount Kenya.
AFPThe success of this process relies heavily on Ruto’s new alliance with Odinga, his arch-enemy from the last election, whose MPs and senators voted overwhelmingly to oust Gachagua.
The National Assembly also appointed one of Odinga’s close aides, senior lawyer James Orengo, to lead his legal team during the impeachment trial.
There is undoubtedly a convergence of interests here. But this could be a poisoned chalice for Ruto.
How long this flirtation will last is unpredictable. But this is characteristic of Kenya’s changing political landscape.
Ruto has so far appointed four senior members of Odinga’s party to the cabinet and is backing him for the influential post of chairman of the next African Union Commission.
The two men have a long political history and have been either allies or rivals.
In the 2002 presidential election, Ruto supported Kenyatta, Odinga supported Kibaki, and Kibaki won.
Five years later, loyalties shifted in the hotly contested 2007 election, with Ruto backing Odinga and Kenyatta backing now-President Kibaki, in a contest that descended into nationwide violence.
Ruto and Kenyatta were subsequently indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges that they supported opposing sides in the fighting.
But in the next two elections, in 2013 and 2017, they campaigned together and defeated Odinga.
The ICC case against them was eventually dismissed for lack of evidence.
In Kenyan politics, any alliance is possible, no matter how unlikely they may appear to outsiders.
All national leaders try to do is keep their regional or ethnic groupings intact so that they can be used as bargaining chips when seeking partnerships and formulas to win national elections.
Ruto and Odinga have long been committed to this goal and joined politics at a young age.
They both have loyal bases of support – as their recent alliance shows, Odinga’s supporters have completely switched over to the politician they last came close to opposing two years ago.
Gachagua hopes to achieve the same status, but his ambition has currently burned him out.
He is challenging the impeachment in court, which if successful could provide him with a political lifeline. If not, the law would bar him from running for office for at least 10 years.
This kind of politics is a constant battle. Gachagua, 59, is a fairly late entrant and his future is unclear.
He is likely to be sentenced to political oblivion, or he could still return to the stage – as Ruto’s rival or even his ally.
As painful as the divorce may seem, with the president moving quickly, no one in Kenya would be surprised to see him shaking hands and smiling with his estranged former deputy on national television.
Kenya’s political scene is an active seismic zone – the tectonic plates are constantly shifting and anything is possible.
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