Getty ImagesNorth Korea accused South Korea of launching drones into the capital, exacerbating months of tensions.
The drones allegedly dropped propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang, which North Korea said was a provocation that could lead to “armed conflict or even war.”
After leveling the accusations against South Korea on Friday, Pyongyang said it had ordered border troops to prepare to open fire. South Korea said it was ready to respond, warning that if the safety of its citizens was threatened, it would mark “the end of the North Korean regime.”
Then, on Tuesday, North Korea blew up parts of two roads connecting it to South Korea, follow through on previous threats. The next day, it claimed that 1.4 million young North Koreans had applied to join or rejoin the military.
The clashes are the latest in a series of exchanges between the two Koreas, which have seen tensions rise to their highest in years since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared South Korea his regime’s top enemy in January.
What’s wrong?
On October 11, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry accused South Korea of sending drones at night over a two-week period. The leaflets distributed by the drones were said to contain “inflammatory rumors and rubbish”.
Kim Jong Un’s influential sister Kim Yo Jong warned Seoul that there would be “dire consequences” if so-called drone flights happened again. She later said there was “clear evidence” that “military bandits” from the south were behind the alleged provocation.
North Korea released grainy images of what it said were drones flying in the air, as well as photos purportedly showing leaflets, but could not independently confirm their claims.
While South Korea initially denied launching drones into North Korea, the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff later said it could neither confirm nor deny Pyongyang’s accusations.
There is speculation locally that the drones were flown by activists who have been sending the same material to North Korea in balloons.
Park Sang-hak, leader of the Free Korea Movement Alliance, denied North Korea’s claims of drone intrusion and said “we did not send drones to North Korea.”
North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said Kim met with the army chief, military chiefs, national security and defense ministers and senior officials on Monday.
There, Kim Jong Un set “directions for immediate military action” and ordered officials to “adopt war deterrence and exercise the right of self-defense.”
Ri Sung-joon, a public relations official for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said North Korea could launch “small-scale provocations” such as small-scale explosions on roads connecting North Korea.
Subsequently, explosions occurred on the symbolic Gyeonggi Road and Donghae Road.
Analysts say that although both roads have long been closed, destroying them sends a message that Kim Jong Un does not want to negotiate with South Korea.
After the explosion, South Korea’s military said it had fired weapons on its side of the border in a show of force and stepped up surveillance of North Korea.
Hours later, the government of Gyeonggi Province around Seoul designated 11 border areas between North and South Korea as “danger zones” to prevent people from sending anti-North Korea propaganda leaflets across the border.
Gyeonggi Province Deputy Governor Kim Sung-jung said at a media briefing: “Gyeonggi Province has determined that the act of distributing leaflets to North Korea is an extremely dangerous act and may trigger a military conflict.”
Kim added that as “inter-Korean relations are rapidly deteriorating,” distributing such leaflets could threaten “the lives and safety of our residents.”
What does this mean?
Analysts said the drone incident showed that North Korea is strengthening internal support by escalating the threats it faces.
Professor Kang Dong-wan, who teaches political science and diplomacy at Dong-A University, said using terms such as “separate country” to refer to South Korea and abandoning terms such as “compatriots” and “unification” are part of this strategy.
“The North Korean regime relies on a politics of fear and needs external enemies,” Professor Kang said. “Whenever tensions rise, North Korea emphasizes external threats to increase loyalty to the regime.”
Analysts say the tit-for-tat confrontation between North and South Korea shows the two countries are locked in a “game of chicken” with neither side willing to blink first.
“Both sides are unwilling to make concessions at this time,” said Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the University of Korean Studies in Seoul.
Professor Kim added that Seoul “needs to think strategically about how to deal with the crisis” because of mutual distrust.
Is North Korea headed for war?
Not yet, analysts say.
“I doubt the situation will escalate to war levels. North Korea is using military confrontation to strengthen internal cohesion,” Professor Kang said.
“I question North Korea’s ability to launch a full-scale war. The regime is very aware of the serious consequences of such a conflict,” Professor Kim said.
Professor Nam Sung-wook, who teaches North Korea studies at Korea University in Seoul, said the recent dispute over drone flights is likely to remain a “war of words.”
Professor Nam said that because Seoul and Pyongyang know they cannot afford an all-out war, “the likelihood of actual use of nuclear weapons is low.”
What’s the big picture?
Technically, the two Koreas are still at war because the two countries did not sign a peace treaty at the end of the Korean War in 1953.
Reunification with South Korea has been a key part of North Korean ideology since its founding, albeit increasingly unrealistic, until Kim Jong Un came to power. give up unity January and the South.
Kim Jong Un brought North Korea Getting closer to Russia under Vladimir Putinwhich puts him at odds with South Korea’s main allies, the United States and the West.
Equally important is North Korea’s long-standing relationship with China, Arguably its most important ally. Following the drone incident, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called on all parties on the peninsula on Tuesday to “avoid further escalation of the conflict.”
As the U.S. presidential campaign enters its sprint, tensions are rising on the Korean peninsula.
