Attack on Jabaliya hints at disputed Israeli plans for northern Gaza

On Saturday morning, the Israeli military’s Arabic-language spokesman posted a message on social media, warning people living in the “D5” area in northern Gaza to move south. D5 is a square on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) grid superimposed on the map of Gaza. It’s a neighborhood divided into dozens of smaller areas.

messageThe latest article in the series reads: “The Israel Defense Forces are vigorously combating terrorist organizations and will do so for a long time. The designated areas, including the shelters located there, are considered dangerous combat zones.” Must pass Salah al-Din immediately Roads were evacuated to humanitarian areas.

Attached is a map with a big yellow arrow pointing from area D5 to southern Gaza. Saladin Road is the main north-south route. The message did not promise a swift return to the area, which has been shattered by a year of repeated Israeli attacks. The core of the message is that the IDF will “use strong force for a long time.” In other words, don’t expect to be back anytime soon.

The humanitarian area designated by Israel in the cable is al-Mawasi, a former agricultural area on the coast near Rafah. It’s overcrowded and no safer than many other places in Gaza. BBC verify has tracked at least 18 airstrikes in the area.

Hamas has sent its message to 400,000 people in northern Gaza, the once urban heartland of the Gaza corridor with a population of 1.4 million. Hamas told them not to move. The south, they were told, was just as dangerous. Among other things, Hamas warned them that they would not be allowed back.

Despite Israeli airstrikes and shelling, many appeared to remain in place. As I headed to an area overlooking northern Gaza, I heard explosions and saw billows of smoke rising. The intensity reminded me of the first months of the war.

While many have fled to the south, some remain in northern Gaza, doing so to be with vulnerable relatives. Others come from families with ties to Hamas. This does not automatically make them belligerents under the laws of war.

Last year, one tactic used by civilians who wanted to avoid IDF operations without risking their lives in overcrowded and dangerous southern Gaza was to move elsewhere in the north, such as from Beit Hanoun to Gaza City, while the IDF Moved elsewhere in the north. When the army moves on, they will come back.

According to BBC colleagues who are in daily contact with Palestinians in Gaza, the IDF is working hard to prevent this from happening. It is directing families who have moved in only one direction, along Salah al-Din, the main road to the south.

Israel does not allow journalists to enter Gaza to cover the war except on brief, rare and closely supervised trips with the Israel Defense Forces. Palestinian journalists who were there on October 7 were still working bravely. The Committee to Protect Journalists says at least 128 Palestinian media workers have been killed in Gaza since the war began. In northern Gaza, since Israel renewed its offensive, they have been filming panicked families fleeing, often with the help of small children carrying oversized backpacks.

One of the articles included a brief interview with a woman named Manar al-Bayar, who was running down the street with a young child in her arms. “They told us we have five minutes to leave the Fallujah school. Where are we going? There are assassinations in southern Gaza. They are shelling in western Gaza,” she said, half walking, half running on her way out of the Jabaliya refugee camp. Boom people, where do we go, God, God is our only chance.

The journey is hard. Palestinians in Gaza say people on the move are sometimes shot at by the Israel Defense Forces. It insists that Israeli soldiers adhere to strict rules of engagement that respect international humanitarian law.

But Liz Alcock, head of protection at Palestinian Medical Aid, said evidence from injured civilians suggested they had been targeted.

“When we were admitting patients in the hospital, large numbers of women, children, people of non-combatant age, if you will, had direct gunshot wounds to their heads, spines, extremities, which was very much indicative of a directly targeted attack.”

The United Nations and aid agencies working in Gaza have again said Israeli military pressure is exacerbating what is already a humanitarian disaster.

Remaining hospitals in northern Gaza are sending desperate messages that they are running out of fuel for the generators that keep them running and keeping seriously injured patients alive. Some hospitals reported that their buildings had been attacked by Israelis.

Palestinians, the United Nations and aid agencies suspect the Israel Defense Forces is gradually adopting some or all of a new strategy to clear northern Gaza, dubbed “Project General.” The plan was proposed by a group of retired senior military officers led by former national security adviser Maj. Gen. Jorah Eiland (retd.).

Like most Israelis, they are frustrated and angry that a year into the war Israel has still not achieved its war goals of destroying Hamas and freeing hostages. The Generals plan was a new idea that its promoters believed could break the deadlock from an Israeli perspective.

The core idea is that Israel can force Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar to surrender by increasing pressure on the entire population of the north. The first step is to order civilians out along evacuation corridors that will take them south of Gaza’s Wadi, the east-west river that has divided Gaza since Israel invaded last October.

Giora Eiland believes that Israel should immediately reach a deal to regain the hostages, even if it means withdrawing from Gaza completely. A year later, he said, other approaches were necessary.

Speaking from his office in central Israel, he laid out the core elements of the plan.

“Now that we have surrounded northern Gaza for the past nine or ten months, what we should do is tell all 300,000 residents the following: [that the UN estimates is 400,000] Those still living in northern Gaza must leave the area and should be given 10 days to leave through a safe corridor that Israel will provide.

“After that, all these areas will become military zones. But still, all Hamas people, whether some of them are fighters, some of them are civilians… will have two options, either surrender or Starving”.

Aylan wants Israel to cordon off the areas after evacuation corridors are closed. Anyone who remains will be considered an enemy combatant. The area will be under siege and the military will block all supplies of food, water, or other necessities. .

The United Nations World Food Program said the current offensive in Gaza was having “catastrophic impacts on the food security of thousands of Palestinian families.” The main crossing into northern Gaza is reportedly closed and no food aid has entered the strip since 1 October. Mobile kitchens and bakeries were forced to stop working due to air strikes. The only WFP-supported bakery still open in the north caught fire after being hit by explosive ordnance. The situation in the south is almost as grim.

It is unclear whether the IDF adopted the Generals plan in part or in full, but circumstantial evidence of what was done in Gaza suggests that it had at least a strong influence on tactics used against the population. The BBC submitted a series of questions to the IDF but received no response.

Ultra-nationalist extremists in Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet want to replace Palestinians in northern Gaza with Jewish settlers. In one of his many statements on the issue, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said, “Our brave fighters and soldiers are destroying the evil of Hamas and we will capture the Gaza Strip… To be honest, Where there are no solutions, there are solutions.