shocked by Kill James Cleverly Almost universal.
Not only did he fail to secure a handful of extra votes to make it into the final two, he actually fell back.
How did this happen?
On the secret ballot, theories vary, but errors in the various campaigns are more compelling than conspiracies.
Some believe that some Conservative MPs concluded that Cleverley was already a sure winner, so they could afford to vote for someone else in the hope that it would help weed out candidates they really didn’t want to compete in the runoff.
Others said the other two campaigns were simply more effective and persuasive when it really mattered.
Who knows.
And, honestly, it doesn’t matter anymore.
The final pair has been confirmed, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, rather than either/or.
Shorthand political labels for party insiders are often insufficient to capture the nuances of their views, but those who see themselves as centrist or to the left of the Conservative Party find themselves without a standard-bearer to choose from.
They expressed frustration that the final two candidates, made up of two candidates who consider themselves to be on the right wing of the party, did not reflect a wider range of options.
Robert Jenrick has moved to the right since becoming an MP, with his experience in government changing his instincts on immigration, for example.
Kemi Badenoch is seen by her supporters as a potential star: combative in expressing her conservatism and willing to say things others won’t.
But even her supporters acknowledge that she is, as one put it to me, a “work in progress” more susceptible to real action and victory.
The game has now changed direction.
This is a new election, with new voters.
No longer just 121 Tory MPs, but tens of thousands of Tory members across the UK.
Team Jenrick sees itself as challengers, underdogs.
Their strategy seems to include this: challenge Kemi Badenock to debate them anytime, anywhere.
Jenrick will deliver a speech in Westminster on Thursday.
Badenock’s team noted that they topped the MP vote and surveys showed she had been the most popular potential leader among party members.
She will begin the next phase of her campaign, joining an aspiring Conservative MP in a parliamentary by-election in a London suburb.
This may sound low-key, but remember who the voters are: Conservative Party members, like that parliamentary candidate.
We can expect both candidates to focus on issues considered important by party members and try to meet with as many people as possible.
Yes, there will be recognition given to a wider electorate in hopes of demonstrating the ability to win a general election, but the people who have the vote in this race are the ones who hold the power now.
Ballots will be sent out in the coming days, and party members will have just over two weeks to cast their ballots on paper or online.
Then, three weeks later on Saturday 2 November, Rishi Sunak’s successor will be announced.
This will mark the end of the post-election period in British politics.
By then, the government will prepare its first budget and a new opposition leader will be in place.
The political landscape of the coming years will have already been shaped.
