Does China now have a permanent military base in Cambodia?

The two gray shapes of Cambodia’s Ream naval base have been visible from satellites for much of this year, appearing to confirm Washington’s growing concerns that China is expanding its military footprint beyond three areas of the South China Sea it already occupies and occupies. a disputed island.

The shapes are that of the Chinese Navy’s A56 frigates – 1,500-ton warships – which are moored next to a new Chinese-built pier large enough to accommodate larger ships. There are other facilities on the shore, also built by China, presumably for use by the Chinese Navy.

The Cambodian government has repeatedly denied this possibility, citing its constitution, which prohibits any permanent foreign military presence, and saying Ream is available to all friendly navies.

“Please understand, this is a Cambodian base, not a Chinese base,” said Seun Sam, a policy analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia. “Cambodia is small and our military capabilities are limited.

“We need more training from outside friends, especially from China.”

Others, however, are skeptical.

For all the talk of China’s rapid rise in maritime power – its navy now has more ships than the United States – China currently has only one overseas military base, in Djibouti, Africa, which was opened in 2016.

By comparison, the United States has about 750 factories, including one in Djibouti, and many others in countries with close ties to China, such as Japan and South Korea.

However, the United States believes that this imbalance is changing due to China’s claim to become a global military power. This, along with the scale of investment in overseas infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative, must be built to military standards under Chinese law.

Some in Washington predict that China will eventually have a global network of bases, or civilian ports that can be used as bases. The first of these is Ream.

Until a few years ago, Ream, located in the southern tip of Cambodia, was being upgraded with assistance from the United States. This is part of tens of millions of dollars worth of military aid provided to Cambodia each year. But the United States cut aid after Cambodia’s main opposition party was banned in 2017 and its leaders were exiled or jailed.

The Cambodian government has become increasingly dependent on China for aid and investment, suddenly displacing that partner. It canceled regular joint military exercises with the United States and instead held so-called Golden Dragon exercises with China.

By 2020, two U.S.-funded buildings in Ream had been demolished and a massive Chinese-funded expansion of the facility had begun. By the end of last year, the new terminal had been completed. It is almost identical to the 363-meter-long pier at the Djibouti base, which is enough to accommodate China’s largest aircraft carrier.

Soon the two frigates were docked in Ream – either they or their identical replacements, where they had been for most of the year.

Cambodia claims the ships are for training and preparation for this year’s Golden Dragon exercise. The report also said that China is building two new A56 frigates for its navy and insisted that China’s presence in Ream is not permanent and therefore cannot be regarded as a base.

But that hasn’t stopped U.S. officials from raising concerns about the expansion of the site, with satellite photos showing four people living there in addition to a new dock, new dry dock, warehouses and what looks like administrative offices and living quarters.

In 2019, the Wall Street Journal reported on a leaked agreement between Cambodia and China to lease 77 hectares of land at the base for 30 years. This allegedly includes stationing military personnel and weapons.

The Cambodian government dismissed the report as fake news, but it is worth noting that so far only Chinese warships have been allowed to dock at the new pier. Two Japanese destroyers were told to dock in nearby Sihanoukville when they visited in February.

However, even if China’s presence does begin to become more permanent and exclusive, some analysts wonder whether this would violate Cambodia’s constitution.

Technically speaking, Ream is indeed not a permanent base. While its expansion is being funded by China, the base itself is not leased to China, said Kirstin Gunness, a senior policy fellow at the California-based RAND Corporation.

“We are seeing a pattern of Chinese ships docking [at Ream]she said.

U.S. and Philippine operations similar agreementGunness added.

Most analysts believe that China’s long-term presence in Ream will bring no real advantages to China. They pointed out that China has established three bases on Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef in the South China Sea, as well as possesses a strong naval force on the south coast.

But the Chinese base in Ream, at the mouth of the Gulf of Thailand, does worry Cambodia’s neighbors Thailand and Vietnam. It, along with other bases further north, can be seen as China’s attempt to encircle Vietnam’s long coast.

Like the Philippines, Vietnam disputes China’s claims to nearly all islands in the South China Sea and its military has clashed with China in the past.

Thai national security officials have also privately expressed alarm at the idea of ​​China establishing a base south of Sattahip, Thailand’s main naval port, to cover exports from the Gulf of Thailand. After all, Thailand and Cambodia still have an unresolved territorial dispute.

However, neither country is likely to express these complaints publicly. Thailand wants to avoid causing ripple effects in its important economic relationship with China, while Vietnam wants to avoid stirring up anti-Vietnamese sentiment in Cambodia. The Vietnamese people’s dissatisfaction with China has always been apparent on the surface, which is what the Vietnamese government hopes to avoid.

At the same time, U.S. and Indian strategists are more concerned about the possibility of China establishing bases in the Indian Ocean—such as Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, where a Chinese state-owned company secured a 99-year lease in 2017, or Pakistan’s Guarantee Dar Port has also been rebuilt with Chinese funding.

But these are still very distant prospects. Few analysts believe China will be able to compete with the United States for global military influence for many years to come.

“The Ream base doesn’t add much power projection capability, it doesn’t get the Chinese navy closer to where it wants to go,” said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

What it can do is play a huge role in gathering intelligence, tracking satellites, and detecting or monitoring distant targets.

“These are not necessarily the best options for China,” Paulin added. “But they’re the only ones offering it.”