The United States proposed a ceasefire plan for the Middle East during the conference

After the United States, the European Union and 10 other countries called for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the White House went into spin mode to try to build momentum for its proposal.

In a late-night Zoom press conference that was so packed with reporters that some had to be turned away, senior Biden administration officials called the news a “breakthrough.”

What they mean is that they view the agreement between major European and Arab states, led by Washington, as a major diplomatic achievement during the current explosive escalation.

But this is a call from world powers for a ceasefire, not a ceasefire itself.

The statement urged Israel and Hezbollah to immediately cease fighting and use the 21-day truce to “provide space” for further mediation negotiations. It then urged a diplomatic solution based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which sought to end the last Israeli-Lebanese war in 2006 but was never properly implemented. It also called for an agreement on the stalled ceasefire in Gaza.

In addition to a three-week truce, it imposes a series of already elusive regional goals. For nearly two decades, some issues have remained beyond the reach of diplomats.

To release the agreed text, the United States has the advantage of world leaders gathering in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly.

But a “breakthrough” does not mean that Israel and Hezbollah have signed no agreement at all, as is already abundantly clear on the ground.

Here, U.S. officials appear to be trying to portray both sides’ positions as more advanced than they actually are—possibly trying to build public support for the plan and pressure both sides.

Asked whether Israel and Hezbollah were on board, one of the senior officials said: “What I can share is that we have had conversations with all parties and believe this is the right time because [ceasefire] Based on our discussion, we’ll call them – they’re familiar with the text… and we’ll have them speak over the next few hours about their actions in accepting the deal.

When pressed again on whether that meant Israel and Hezbollah had signed on — especially given that the U.S. has no direct contact with Hezbollah — the official clarified that the U.S. had been working with Israeli officials and the Lebanese government, meaning its officials would Hezbollah contacts).

“Our expectation is that when both the Lebanese and Israeli governments accept this, a ceasefire agreement will be reached and implemented,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

This sounds promising. But after late-night calls, the diplomats awoke to more Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, including Beirut, and more Hezbollah rockets fired into Israel. This week marked Lebanon’s bloodiest day since its civil war; Israeli air strikes killed more than 600 people, including 50 children, according to Lebanese health officials.

So how important is diplomacy?

The early signs don’t bode well. As Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu boarded a flight to New York to address the United Nations on Friday, his office issued a defiant statement saying he had not yet agreed to any deal. The statement added that he ordered Israeli forces to continue fighting “with all their might.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Naguib Mikati dismissed reports that he had signed a ceasefire proposal, calling them “totally untrue.”

Instead, the joint statement sets the bottom line for the international community’s attempts to pressure Israel and Hezbollah to withdraw and cease.

More work will be done in New York before the week is out. And this situation is likely to continue in the future.

It is worth noting that the Americans, along with the French, led the charge and used the words “immediate ceasefire.” After October 7, the United States actively blocked the UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza for several months, until President Biden unexpectedly used the word and the US position changed.

Since then, intensive diplomacy led by Washington has failed to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas, with the United States now accusing Hamas and Israel of lacking “political will”. Meanwhile, the United States continues to arm Israel.

That doesn’t inspire confidence that Washington and its allies can now force a swift ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, especially given the intensity of the ground fighting, Israeli airstrikes and last week’s explosive pager attacks on Hezbollah. Still going on.

On the other hand, this differs from the Gaza ceasefire in that the Israel-Lebanon agreement does not involve hostage negotiations, which led to the Gaza agreement reaching a deadlock.

But the goals of both sides remain very important. Israel hopes to repatriate 60,000 displaced residents from the north and maintain security there from daily Lebanese rocket attacks.

More than 90,000 people have been displaced in southern Lebanon as Hezbollah seeks to halt Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

The Shia militant group aims to maintain its dominance in the country and presence in the south while trying to ensure that last week’s bloody events do not spark more internal discontent within the group amid Lebanon’s bitter sectarian divisions.

Amos Hochstein, Washington’s special envoy for the Israel-Lebanon crisis, has been unable to reach an agreement between the two countries for months.

This is where the U.S.-led desire for an immediate ceasefire becomes complicated.

My understanding of the negotiations that led to the joint statement is that Washington worked hard to ensure that the 21-day ceasefire was linked to creating time for negotiations to reach a long-term solution.

That is, the two sides negotiate to implement Resolution 1701, which imposes a number of conditions on Israel and Hezbollah. These include the group’s withdrawal from the Lebanese strip south of the Litani River and, in the longer term, the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Since 2006, both sides have long accused the other of violating Section 1701.

What it all means is that a goal that diplomats have eschewed for nearly two decades is now being folded into short-term plans to maintain calm between the two countries. Diplomacy is currently demanding as missiles continue to rain down.