Europe’s deadly floods offer glimpse of future climate

Scientists say devastating floods in central Europe are being made worse by climate change, offering a glimpse into the future of the world’s fastest-warming continent.

The Boris War has devastated countries including Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Austria and Italy, killing at least 24 people and causing billions of pounds in damage.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) organization said the last four days of rainfall were the heaviest ever recorded in central Europe, with climate change causing the rainfall to double in intensity.

On the positive side, the forecast for this storm was good, which means some areas were better prepared for it, potentially preventing more deaths.

WWA scientists learned about the role climate change plays in extreme weather events by comparing it to a model that suggests storms, droughts or heat waves could occur in a world where humans burned almost no fossil fuels. What serious consequences.

Thankfully, the rains Boris brings are still rare – expected to occur about once every 100-300 years in today’s climate, which is already warming by about 1.3 degrees Celsius due to greenhouse gas emissions.

But WWA warns that if temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, the intensity of similar events will increase by an additional 5% and the frequency will increase by 50%.

Without more ambitious climate action, global warming is expected to reach around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

“This is certainly something we will see more of in the future,” said Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and co-author of the WWA study.

“[It] is the absolute fingerprint of climate change […] The record was broken so drastically.

The record rainfall fits a broader pattern of changes in Europe’s climate as global warming occurs.

Europe is the fastest-warming continent. The past five years have averaged about 2.3 degrees Celsius warmer than in the second half of the 19th century, according to the Copernicus climate service.

This brings not only more frequent and intense heatwaves, but also more extreme rainfall, particularly in northern and central Europe. The situation in southern Europe is more complex due to changes in large-scale weather patterns.

The simplest reason for greater rainfall in a hotter world is that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture – about 7% for every 1 degree Celsius rise. This extra moisture can lead to heavier rainfall.

One of the reasons Boris is producing so much rain is that the weather system has become “troubled”, dumping huge amounts of water on the same area for days on end.

There is some evidence that climate change’s effects on the jet stream, a band of fast-flowing winds high in the atmosphere, may make this “stall” phenomenon more common. But this remains controversial.

Even if we don’t have more “stagnant” weather systems in the future, climate change means that any weather system that gets into trouble is likely to carry more moisture, and therefore could have catastrophic consequences.

“These weather patterns are occurring in a warming climate due to our greenhouse gas emissions, [so] Richard Allen, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, explained: “The intensity and amount of rain are greater than they would otherwise be.”

Weather forecasts continue to improve, and in this case, large amounts of rainfall causing flooding were predicted days in advance.

This means flood prevention preparations can be put in place.

That’s part of the reason why the death toll hasn’t been as severe as the major floods of 1997 and 2002, even though recent rainfall has been heavier in many places and floods have covered larger areas.

“After the first two floods, we spent a lot of money [install and update] Mirek Trnka of the Institute of Global Change in the Czech Republic explains that the Czech Republic is one of the countries most affected by floods.

For example, in the city of Brno, where Professor Trnka is based, although not all flood control work has yet to be completed, early warnings allow authorities to reinforce areas where work still needs to be completed.

Not all parts of Europe are so lucky. The EU has pledged €10bn (£8.3bn) in emergency repair funding to help affected areas.

“This shows how expensive climate change is,” Dr. Otto said.

Improved flood defenses in recent decades have largely shielded communities from larger impacts.

But there are concerns that rising temperatures and increasing extreme rainfall could render these measures ineffective.

“this [severity of the] Flood events will increase significantly in the future, so if flood protection measures are kept at the same level as today, the impact on European societies may become unbearable.

Of course, there’s a clear way to stop these rainfall events from becoming more severe – reduce emissions of planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide.

“Our simulations show that if future global warming can be kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius, one of the goals of the Paris Agreement, future flood losses will be halved. [business as usual] situation,” Dr. Doctory added.

Otherwise, Professor Allen said, we know what will happen to these events in the future.

“The intensity of rainfall and these weather events are only going to get worse.”

Map by Muskeen Liddar.