Monday was Lebanon’s bloodiest day since the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.
Israel launched a series of large-scale air strikes this morning that have killed 492 people so far, according to the Lebanese government, and Israel warned of more attacks.
The war is escalating rapidly, a process driven by the scale of Israeli airstrikes.
They warned civilians to leave their target areas. They said the next target would be the Bekaa Valley in northeastern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold.
Even before the current escalation, more than 100,000 Lebanese had been forced to leave their homes due to Israeli attacks, with no immediate prospect of returning home.
We’re seeing another massive escalation from the Israelis.
Perhaps their calculation is that they believe that Hezbollah is now in such a weak position that this is their opportunity to really do some damage to it and change the strategic landscape of the hills and towns on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
While the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has raged for decades, the current war between the two sides began the day after the Hamas attack on October 7 last year.
Hezbollah has launched a limited but sustained rocket fire campaign over the border in an attempt to tie down Israeli forces and damage Israeli property and people. Some 60,000 Israelis were forced to evacuate to the center of the country. In the past few days, returning them to their homes has been added to Israel’s list of war goals.
The United States, Britain and other allies and critics of Israel believe the only hope of cooling the dangerous crisis is a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said attacks on Israel will continue until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But it now seems clear that neither the leaders of Hamas nor Israel are prepared to accept the deal proposed by the United States.
The war itself has overwhelming support among Israelis, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains unpopular with a large portion of the Israeli electorate, although his approval ratings have improved in opinion polls.
Many Israelis also view Netanyahu as an appalling leader who lied and abandoned hostages in Gaza. So he’s a very controversial figure, but he’s politically safe with the support of right-wing elements in parliament who support him.
His decision to attack was risky.
Although Hezbollah is wounded, it is more than capable of fighting back. That’s why Israel’s friends and foes are still preparing for the worst.
