If Harris’ support among black voters continues to solidify as it has over the past two months, she has a good chance of winning both states.
Members of the Florida delegation vote on the second day of the Democratic National Convention on August 20 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
(Joe Reddell/Getty Images)
With less than 50 days until the presidential election, two key states are in contention: Florida and North Carolina. In fact, Kamala Harris’ historic candidacy has galvanized voters across the political spectrum, to the point where nearly every state that Barack Obama won in 2012 was within Harris’ reach and winnable. But surprisingly, you won’t see much mention of this key development in the electoral landscape.
Most media figures do not properly understand the underlying trends and dynamics of this election because they stubbornly insist on ignoring the most decisive relevant data available – the differences in political preferences among our country’s various racial groups. Since the advent of modern exit polls in 1976, the most stark difference in the U.S. population has been in the vote choices of black and white voters. past 44 yearsAccording to exit polls, no Democratic presidential candidate received less than 83% of the black vote, and a majority of white voters consistently sided with the Republican candidate (Jimmy Carter was the Democrat who came closest to winning the election). Obtained 48% of them in 1976).
To address this gap in political analysis, two years ago I collaborated with data scientist Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega to develop new majority index (NMI), the only company that contains historical election data, voting results, and Racial demographics from the U.S. Census. When the election is viewed from this perspective, it becomes clearer what is happening and what is likely to happen. For example, I wrote in 2022 How NMI shows that in a year nearly everyone predicted, House seats will be much more contested than most experts thought ‘Red wave’ in Republican House elections. As the NMI suggested, a red wave never materialized, resulting in a pink puddle of changing parties with only a handful of seats instead of the dozens predicted by most.
I updated and expanded the NMI model this election cycle to include electoral and demographic data from presidential elections in addition to congressional races. In particular, I added data points related to the 2012 election, the last time there was a black presidential candidate. From this perspective, the map of competing countries in 2024 is much larger than most media outlets realize.
Like Obama’s candidacy, Harris electrified voters, generating enthusiasm and excitement across the country, especially galvanizing people of color, and especially women of color, about the prospect of fielding a candidate. Showed excitement.
current problem
The wave of support began the day Joe Biden dropped out of the race. On Sunday, July 21, more than 44,000 Black women participated in a Zoom call to strategize and coordinate their efforts, raising $1.6 million in a matter of hours. The combination of technological and demographic revolutions was repeated this week: hundreds of thousands Joined similar Zoom calls organized by black men, Latinos, Asian Americans, white women, and even “Harris’ white brothers.” By the end of the week, the entire electoral landscape had changed and Harris’ lead in the vote was solidified.
As Harris breaks fundraising record, brings in $Campaign took in $200 million in first weeka fundraising event unparalleled in American political history. Almost immediately, polls began to tighten as previously divided Democrats (those who wanted Biden to stay in office, those who wanted Harris instead, and those who wanted someone else entirely) solidified their support for a Harris-Waughton election. Elz votes support. Notably, this excitement quickly brought relatively new “purple” battleground states like Georgia and Arizona back into play. During the first week of the campaign, Harris traveled to Georgia and drew the largest crowds of the Peach State campaign cycle, with more than 10,000 people packing arenas.
While much of the mainstream media has recognized that all 2020 states are now competitive, what most people still don’t see is that Harris’ candidacy not only brings back 2020 states, but also 2012 states. The state comes back into play. The excitement and energy of voters of color now puts Democrats in a position to win nearly every state Obama won.
The new majority index and the latest polling data confirm this fast-emerging reality. The “Obama coalition”—what I call the “New American Majority” in my book—is made up of the vast majority of voters of color and a minority of white voters. The Democratic “formula” for victory involves combining the necessary proportions of support from every racial group in the country.
Two major realities combine to illustrate the potential in Florida and North Carolina — Harris’ current polling numbers among white voters, and the lag in polling data among black voters (that is, a majority Polls fail to capture the depth and breadth of support).
In 2012, Obama won Florida with the support of only 37% of the state’s white voters. In North Carolina in 2008 (a state Obama won but narrowly lost in 2012), his white approval rating was just 35 percent, according to exit polls. Latest polling data shows Harris is doing better Support among white voters is higher than Obama’s support in Florida and North Carolina (39% in Florida and 37% in North Carolina, according to the latest poll).
In both states, despite growing demographic diversity, white voters remain the largest segment of the electorate (59% of eligible voters in Florida and 65% in North Carolina), so Harris’ level of overtaking Obama is extremely high. important.
The reason the electoral map looks particularly promising for Harris is that polls underestimate Harris’ support among blacks. That is, there is a lag between their current revealed preference among black voters and her most likely support.
This hysteresis appears in latest new york times/Siena College Poll This shows Harris’ support among black voters is only 75%. no democratic candidate once With less than 83% of the black vote, accepting the 75% number as accurate for Harris’ final 2024 number is absurd. Both qualitative and quantitative tea leaves suggest Harris will win over 90% of the black vote. according to Rigorous statistical analysis by the Pew Research CenterThe Biden/Harris 2020 ticket received 92% of the black vote. In previous historical analogies, Obama received 93% of the black vote nationally and 95% of black voters in Florida and North Carolina.
If Harris’ support among black voters continues to solidify as it has over the past two months, she has a good chance of winning both states. In Florida, the key constituency will be Latino, and she will need 60 percent of that community’s vote to win. The latest poll shows that only 50% of Latinos support Harris, but that number is likely low and lagging since a September Pew survey showed that 57% of Latinos nationwide supported Harris.
In North Carolina, an August YouGov poll showed Harris meeting Obama’s threshold among white voters, but the figure among black voters was apparently incorrect, at 75 percent. If support among white voters remains at 37% and support among black voters reaches Obama’s level of 95%, she will win the state. To be sure, a major challenge in these states — indeed all states with large populations of people of color — will be overcoming the widespread voter suppression measures that have proliferated in recent years.
Something profound, historic, transformative is sweeping the nation. You can see it in the faces of people attending Harris rallies, the staggering influx of dollars from her campaign coffers, and the surge in voter registration and volunteers since she took control of the ballot. Taking a race-conscious approach to analyzing the underlying data both affirms the significance of what’s unfolding across the country and points to the possibility that the electoral map is much larger than people realize. All the states Obama won are in play, and Kamala Harris may win more states than many think, including North Carolina and Florida.
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